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Commercial real estate: what trends are driving the market?

5 June 2018

E-commerce continues to grow in France

While the share of e-commerce in total retail trade remains low (9%), e-commerce continues to grow in France. E-commerce turnover increased by 14% in 2017, reaching €81.7 billion. The number of transactions increased by 20.5%.

While the average shopping basket is declining, at €65.5, this erosion is largely offset by the increase in orders’ frequency. The average annual shopping basket per buyer in 2017 is almost €2,200, an increase of nearly 190% in 10 years.

The French e-commerce marketwill likely continue to grow in 2018 to reach the symbolic €100-billion threshold by 2019-2020.

Another striking element: consumers are increasingly using M-commerce (mobile phones or tablets) for shopping. Turnover continues to grow and will continue to do so significantly in 2018.

>>> Estimate the value of your commercial assets


The retail third place: developing new forms of commercial offerings

Stores tend to diversify their activities to offer services and experiences associated with the products and the brand. Consumers are no longer just looking to buy. They want to have experiences. The emphasis is on individuals and customised, lively spaces where there is an atmosphere, an atmosphere specific to the brand.

The retail third place retail thus represents an opportunity to bring the universe of the brand closer to that of the consumer, to integrate their social and cultural sphere, his imagination, through recurrent visits motivated by activities other than buying (discovering new products, meetings, courses, workshops, relaxation etc). A strong personal bond is created between the brand, the place and the visitors. The objective is for the brands to place themselves in the daily life of the inhabitants, aided by the new technologies which make it possible to increase the experience offered and the personalisation of the customer journey. The retail third place thus becomes a place of life, sharing, relaxation and creation. The customer has a central role, integrates a community and interacts with the brand.

The Reebok gym is third place example: at the crossroads of sport, fashion, art and culture (sports hall, events, conferences and think-tanks, team building, exhibitions, catering areas, meeting rooms and  also the Reebok shop and collection launches)


The shaking up of food in the city centre

Often located on the outskirts or at the entrance of a city, drive-thrus are rarely seen in largely pedestrian city centres. The idea is simple: apply the concept of drive-thrusto pedestrians. After having made their purchases on the internet, the customer will pick-up their shopping in a dedicated collection point.

Leclerc opened its first pedestrian drive-thru in Lille at the beginning of 2017, offering nearly 12,000 product references (compared with around 6,000 for competing inner-city areas). To be profitable, these new types of stores generally opt for small premises (controlled rents), with extended opening hours. Some pedestrian drive-thrus are also looking to forge partnerships with local businesses in order to set up locally and create synergies.

Another complementary idea is the development of refrigerated boxes for the delivery of food and fresh products. Located in strategic locations, these refrigerated boxes would allow customers to pick up their orders delivered to connected collection points. Architects are also considering how to integrate refrigerated cabinets within residential buildings’ shared areas so that deliveries can become widespread.

>>> Shopping centres estimation: what specificities to take into account?


Retail and medium-sized cities: from the suburbs to the city centre?

Many city centres in medium-sized towns (between 20,000 and 100,000 inhabitants) now face difficulties, particularly in terms of shops and services. According to Procos, the average vacancy rate in the city centre rose from 9.5% in 2015 to 11.1% in 2017. 62% of the city centres observed have a vacancy rate above 10%, a symbolic limit considered critical. The causes are multiple: the phenomenon of metropolisation and rationalisation which polarise public activities, facilities and services in the largest cities, accessibility to urban centres, the lack of public transport as an alternative to cars, the scarcity of land in central sectors, more restrictive regulations than in the outskirts, etc

Within the framework of the Elan bill project on housing development, urban planning and digital technology, the government launched the Action cœur de ville plan aimed at revitalizing medium-sized municipalities’ city centers. 222 cities were selected by this contractual mechanism in 2018-2019. More than €5 billion euros will be allocated to this scheme over five years through the ORT (Opération de revitalisation des territoires) which will involve multiple actors. As a reminder, almost a quarter of the population lives in a medium-sized city.

This plan could be an opportunity to move the boundaries of commercial urban planning, at a time when the question of a national "moratorium" on the construction of large commercial areas on the outskirts of cities is gaining momentum within the public debate.